AI data-driven models (Graphcast, Pangu Weather, Fourcastnet, and SFNO) are explored for storyline-based climate attribution due to their short inference times, which can accelerate the number of events studied, and provide real time attributions when public attention is heightened. The analysis is framed on the extreme atmospheric river episode of February 2017 that contributed to the Oroville dam spillway incident in Northern California. Past and future simulations are generated by perturbing the initial conditions with the pre-industrial and the late-21st century temperature climate change signals, respectively. The simulations are compared to results from a dynamical model which represents plausible pseudo-realities under both climate environments. Overall, the AI models show promising results, projecting a 5-6 % increase in the integrated water vapor over the Oroville dam in the present day compared to the pre-industrial, in agreement with the dynamical model. Different geopotential-moisture-temperature dependencies are unveiled for each of the AI-models tested, providing valuable information for understanding the physicality of the attribution response. However, the AI models tend to simulate weaker attribution values than the pseudo-reality imagined by the dynamical model, suggesting some reduced extrapolation skill, especially for the late-21st century regime. Large ensembles generated with an AI model (>500 members) produced statistically significant present-day to pre-industrial attribution results, unlike the >20-member ensemble from the dynamical model. This analysis highlights the potential of AI models to conduct attribution analysis, while emphasizing future lines of work on explainable artificial intelligence to gain confidence in these tools, which can enable reliable attribution studies in real-time.

In just the past few years multiple data-driven Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have been developed, with new versions appearing almost monthly. Given this rapid development, the applicability of these models to operational forecasting has yet to be adequately explored and documented. To assess their utility for operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, the NHC verification procedure is used to evaluate seven-day track and intensity predictions for northern hemisphere TCs from May-November 2023. Four open-source AIWP models are considered (FourCastNetv1, FourCastNetv2-small, GraphCast-operational and Pangu-Weather). The AIWP track forecast errors and detection rates are comparable to those from the best-performing operational forecast models. However, the AIWP intensity forecast errors are larger than those of even the simplest intensity forecasts based on climatology and persistence. The AIWP models almost always reduce the TC intensity, especially within the first 24 h of the forecast, resulting in a substantial low bias. The contribution of the AIWP models to the NHC model consensus was also evaluated. The consensus track errors are reduced by up to 11% at the longer time periods. The five-day NHC official track forecasts have improved by about 2% per year since 2001, so this represents more than a five-year gain in accuracy. Despite substantial negative intensity biases, the AIWP models have a neutral impact on the intensity consensus. These results show that the current formulation of the AIWP models have promise for operational TC track forecasts, but improved bias corrections or model reformulations will be needed for accurate intensity forecasts.

We introduce an interpretable-by-design method, optimized model-analog, that integrates deep learning with model-analog forecasting, a straightforward yet effective approach that generates forecasts from similar initial climate states in a repository of model simulations. This hybrid framework employs a convolutional neural network to estimate state-dependent weights to identify initial analog states that lead to shadowing target trajectories. The advantage of our method lies in its inherent interpretability, offering insights into initial-error-sensitive regions through estimated weights and the ability to trace the physically-based evolution of the system through analog forecasting. We evaluate our approach using the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble to forecast the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a seasonal-to-annual time scale. Results show a 10% improvement in forecasting equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies at 9-12 months leads compared to the original (unweighted) model-analog technique. Furthermore, our model demonstrates improvements in boreal winter and spring initialization when evaluated against a reanalysis dataset. Our approach reveals state-dependent regional sensitivity linked to various seasonally varying physical processes, including the Pacific Meridional Modes, equatorial recharge oscillator, and stochastic wind forcing. Additionally, disparities emerge in the sensitivity associated with El Ni\~no versus La Ni\~na events. El Ni\~no forecasts are more sensitive to initial uncertainty in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, while La Ni\~na forecasts are more sensitive to initial uncertainty in tropical Pacific zonal wind stress. This approach has broad implications for forecasting diverse climate phenomena, including regional temperature and precipitation, which are challenging for the original model-analog approach.